2008年 03月 21日 ( 6 )

Fed Fund Question

Paul Krugmanのブログより:
But I have a possibly naive question: can the Fed really cut the Fed funds rate that far? I don’t mean “can” in the sense that other concerns will give them pause; I mean literally — does the Fed really have that ability?

FedはFFレートを超低金利(1%とか)にすることができない?そんなバカな、と思うけどホントのところはどうでしょう。いずれ分かるような気がします。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 12:28 | Monetary Policy

Un-Fair Value Accounting

Portfolio.comより:
For several quarters, all the investment banks have been taking gains on its liabilities. Say you owe $100 to your friend. But you run into severe problems and your friend starts to figure you can only afford to pay back $95. If you were an investment bank, the magic of fair value accounting dictates that you could get to reduce your liability. What’s more, that $5 gain gets added to earnings. Because investors thought Lehman was more likely to default, its liabilties fell in value and Lehman garnered earnings from this. How much did Lehman win through losing? $600 million in the quarter. How much was its net income? $489 million.

うーむ、何と言えば良いやら。Equityの価値がゼロになった時点で、初めてDebtの価値の減額を認識するのならわかりますが、クレジットリスクが高くなったら途端にDebtの価値を減額して、その分、利益(つまりEquity)として認識するのは本末転倒では?「債権」の現在価値にクレジットリスクを反映させるのは当然ですが、「債務」の現在価値にクレジットリスクを反映させるのは何か間違えている。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 12:13 | Economy

Ben's House

Bloombergより:
The value of Bernanke's home "probably went up to $1.1 million and it's probably back down to $840,000,'' because prices in Washington just a couple years ago "got out of control,'' Wheaton said.

まあ、現時点での痛手は大したことないですが、今後も住宅価格は下がり続けるでしょうから、薄給のベン君には辛いところですね。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 09:38 | Economy

America Premium

FTより:
The last time the swap moved in this fashion was back in the 1990s, when concerns about the Japanese banks prompted the so-called “Japan premium.”

Now the situation appears reversed. Counterparty concerns about the US banks may have prompted funds to start unwinding their trades. Now it’s starting to look like a stampede to get out, with no bid on the swap.

懐かしい。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 08:53 | Economy

もう無茶苦茶でんがな

Bloombergより:
Investors seeking the safety of government debt amid the loss of confidence in credit markets pushed rates on three-month bills today to 0.387 percent, the lowest level since 1954. Institutions worldwide have reported $195 billion in writedowns and losses related to subprime mortgages and collateralized debt obligations since the start of 2007, making firms reluctant to hold anything but Treasuries as collateral on loans.

なんか凄いことになってます。

追記:3/23 リンク修正しました。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 08:42 | Economy

Big Loss of the Day --- Endeavour

FTより:
Endeavour Capital, run by former Salomon Smith Barney fixed-income traders, told investors it fell 27 per cent as a highly leveraged bet on the spread between short- and long-dated JGBs was hit by contagion from the US financial crisis and domestic worries.

ご愁傷様です。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 08:29 | Hedge Fund