カテゴリ:Economy( 16 )

Krugman on Oil Price

クルーグマン教授のブログより:
I’m willing to listen to serious arguments about how speculation might be affecting the price, but you do see a lot of dumb stuff. And this is really, really dumb.

そ、そこまで言わなくても、、、
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-06-24 07:39 | Economy

Reverse is true

FTより:
A decade ago, Japanese banks were being shunned in the global capital markets because of concerns about their backlog of bad loans. Now, in a bizarre twist arising from the credit crisis, the reverse is true.

このみちーはー♪ いつか来たみちー♪
逆方向だけどね。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-04-04 09:59 | Economy

$232 Billion, so far

Bloombergより:
The following table shows the $232 billion in asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007, including reserves set aside for bad loans, at more than 45 of the world's biggest banks and securities firms.

UBSがトップに躍り出ました。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-04-02 11:35 | Economy

SWAT

NYTより:
The Treasury Department will propose on Monday that Congress give the Federal Reserve broad new authority to oversee financial market stability, in effect allowing it to send SWAT teams into any corner of the industry or any institution that might pose a risk to the overall system.

うーむ。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-30 02:00 | Economy

第3の道

Nikkei Netより:
さらに、今後新たな問題が生まれてもくる。世界的な資源不足のもとで生活必需品などの物価上昇圧力が強まり、これまで忘却の彼方にあったインフレが頭をもたげてくるリスクだ。この点で物価安定も重要な政策課題になってくるが、これは金融政策にすべてではないが、強くかかわってくる。また、激変下にある世界市場で日本経済が活力を保ち続けていくには、日本企業が本格的にグローバル戦略を展開する必要があるが、それには産業構造の転換が必須である。ここにもマクロ政策としての金融政策の新たな舵取りが、強く要請されてくる。

僕の頭が悪いせいでしょうが、何を主張しているのかサッパリ理解不能です。金利を上げてしまえインフレを抑えられると同時に、財務的に弱い企業は退場せざるを得ないので、日本経済の新陳代謝が進むということでしょうか?いやー、これだから日本の経済学者は、、、、
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-28 13:14 | Economy

Arbitrage Opportunity?

NYTより:
But on dozens of occasions since early 2006, the futures contracts for corn, wheat and soybeans have expired at a price that was much higher than that day’s cash price for those grains.

へー。不思議ですねぇ。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-28 11:36 | Economy

Cross Your Fingers

WSJより:
WSJ: How do you know what's safe?

Mr. Gross: You don't always. That's why you stick to the highest-quality investments. We were recently a big buyer of municipal bonds, one-billion-plus. How did we know we paid the best price? We didn't. What we did know was that these are double-A quality credits that have very little chance of going bankrupt. We jumped in and crossed our fingers.

ビル・グロス御大のお告げです。まあ、確かに地方債(だけじゃないけど)の市場はとんでもないことになっているようですので、今が買い時なのでしょうが、それでも絶対正しいという保証はないですからね。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-24 12:55 | Economy

Un-Fair Value Accounting

Portfolio.comより:
For several quarters, all the investment banks have been taking gains on its liabilities. Say you owe $100 to your friend. But you run into severe problems and your friend starts to figure you can only afford to pay back $95. If you were an investment bank, the magic of fair value accounting dictates that you could get to reduce your liability. What’s more, that $5 gain gets added to earnings. Because investors thought Lehman was more likely to default, its liabilties fell in value and Lehman garnered earnings from this. How much did Lehman win through losing? $600 million in the quarter. How much was its net income? $489 million.

うーむ、何と言えば良いやら。Equityの価値がゼロになった時点で、初めてDebtの価値の減額を認識するのならわかりますが、クレジットリスクが高くなったら途端にDebtの価値を減額して、その分、利益(つまりEquity)として認識するのは本末転倒では?「債権」の現在価値にクレジットリスクを反映させるのは当然ですが、「債務」の現在価値にクレジットリスクを反映させるのは何か間違えている。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 12:13 | Economy

Ben's House

Bloombergより:
The value of Bernanke's home "probably went up to $1.1 million and it's probably back down to $840,000,'' because prices in Washington just a couple years ago "got out of control,'' Wheaton said.

まあ、現時点での痛手は大したことないですが、今後も住宅価格は下がり続けるでしょうから、薄給のベン君には辛いところですね。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 09:38 | Economy

America Premium

FTより:
The last time the swap moved in this fashion was back in the 1990s, when concerns about the Japanese banks prompted the so-called “Japan premium.”

Now the situation appears reversed. Counterparty concerns about the US banks may have prompted funds to start unwinding their trades. Now it’s starting to look like a stampede to get out, with no bid on the swap.

懐かしい。
[PR]
by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 08:53 | Economy