580-Page Report

NYTより:
The report said that investigators “did not find sufficient evidence to conclude that New Century engaged in earnings management or manipulation, although its accounting irregularities almost always resulted in increased earnings.”

えー、それだけで十分なような。
[PR]
# by stupid-market | 2008-03-27 11:33 | Accounting

Leverage Doesn't Add Value

Oaktree Client Letterより:
First, leverage magnifies outcomes but doesn’t add value.
<中略>
To simplify for my current purpose, risk comes from the combination of what you buy and how you finance it. You can buy very risky assets, but if you don’t lever up to do so, you’ll never lose them to a margin call. Or you can buy fundamentally safe assets, but the combination of enough leverage and a sufficiently hostile environment can cause a meltdown. In other words, investing in “safe” assets isn’t necessarily safe, particularly if you’ve borrowed to buy them.

まさにその通り。
[PR]
# by stupid-market | 2008-03-25 10:41 | Asset Management

Cross Your Fingers

WSJより:
WSJ: How do you know what's safe?

Mr. Gross: You don't always. That's why you stick to the highest-quality investments. We were recently a big buyer of municipal bonds, one-billion-plus. How did we know we paid the best price? We didn't. What we did know was that these are double-A quality credits that have very little chance of going bankrupt. We jumped in and crossed our fingers.

ビル・グロス御大のお告げです。まあ、確かに地方債(だけじゃないけど)の市場はとんでもないことになっているようですので、今が買い時なのでしょうが、それでも絶対正しいという保証はないですからね。
[PR]
# by stupid-market | 2008-03-24 12:55 | Economy

Fed Fund Question

Paul Krugmanのブログより:
But I have a possibly naive question: can the Fed really cut the Fed funds rate that far? I don’t mean “can” in the sense that other concerns will give them pause; I mean literally — does the Fed really have that ability?

FedはFFレートを超低金利(1%とか)にすることができない?そんなバカな、と思うけどホントのところはどうでしょう。いずれ分かるような気がします。
[PR]
# by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 12:28 | Monetary Policy

Un-Fair Value Accounting

Portfolio.comより:
For several quarters, all the investment banks have been taking gains on its liabilities. Say you owe $100 to your friend. But you run into severe problems and your friend starts to figure you can only afford to pay back $95. If you were an investment bank, the magic of fair value accounting dictates that you could get to reduce your liability. What’s more, that $5 gain gets added to earnings. Because investors thought Lehman was more likely to default, its liabilties fell in value and Lehman garnered earnings from this. How much did Lehman win through losing? $600 million in the quarter. How much was its net income? $489 million.

うーむ、何と言えば良いやら。Equityの価値がゼロになった時点で、初めてDebtの価値の減額を認識するのならわかりますが、クレジットリスクが高くなったら途端にDebtの価値を減額して、その分、利益(つまりEquity)として認識するのは本末転倒では?「債権」の現在価値にクレジットリスクを反映させるのは当然ですが、「債務」の現在価値にクレジットリスクを反映させるのは何か間違えている。
[PR]
# by stupid-market | 2008-03-21 12:13 | Economy