Too Big To Manage

Though these tables may help you gain historical perspective and be useful in valuation, they are completely misleading in predicting future possibilities. Berkshire’s past record can’t be duplicated or even approached. Our base of assets and earnings is now far too large for us to make outsized gains in the future.


# by stupid-market | 2008-03-01 09:23 | Buffett

Big Loss of the Day --- AIG

Market Watchより:
AIG Financial Products sold guarantees on CDOs, using credit-default swaps, a type of derivative-based insurance that pays out in the event of a default. It sold "super senior" credit-default swaps that guaranteed higher-quality parts of CDOs.

うーむ、Super SeniorのCDOもほとんど無価値ということですね。AIGのMarket Capは1300億ドルぐらいですので、まあこのぐらいの損失で大騒ぎすることはないのですが、他の中小の金融機関は結構ヤバイかもしれません。
# by stupid-market | 2008-02-29 15:08 | Derivative


Market Moverより:
If you're worried about counterparty risk and the NYT's problem, then there's good news and bad news. The bad news is that I am indeed most likely to assign the contract I've got, rather then piling up a bunch of nominally-offsetting trades. The good news, however, is that hedge funds and other buyers of CDS almost never trade directly with each other. If I assign the contract, I'm going to be assigning it to a dealer.

# by stupid-market | 2008-02-29 11:21 | Derivative



# by stupid-market | 2008-02-29 09:48 | Asset Management

Honest Ben

"There probably will be some bank failures,'' Bernanke said. "There are, for example, some small, or, in many cases, de novo banks that are heavily invested in real estate in locales where prices have fallen.''

# by stupid-market | 2008-02-29 09:12 | Monetary Policy